AMD vs Intel 2019 Edition

[Gigamaxx]

@pastrychef,

I completely agree AMD's CPU (and GPU) launches in 2019 have been the most exciting and refreshing thing that has happened in computing in the last five years.




Indeed ...if Apple want to push the new MacPro as the ultimate high end work station then it's hard to imagine them not considering AMD's new TR 3 CPU's or even possibly AMD Epyc CPU's.

Given the close working relationship Apple have with AMD i'm surprised it hasn't occurred already, although to be fair Apple did not really have a need to switch. But with the New MacPro AMD's TR 3 seems like a match made in heaven, more cores, better performance and PCIe V4 ... AMD TR 3 is exactly what Apple need ... and all the while increasing their profit margins on what is going to be a fairly niche product.




Microsoft recently launched a new Surface Book with AMD Ryzen 3 5 CPU's with intergraded Vega 9 or Vega 11 GPU, at its price point its a very compelling product .. the CPU out performs the similarly spec'd Intel version and of course the Vega GPU trashes the intel IGPU.

Releasing a AMD Ryzen CPU based MacBook (non pro ?) would open the lower end of the laptop market to Apple, getting kids and students into the Apple Mac eco system while still at school ... so it makes a lot of sense.

I guess time will tell ... Apple have enough money to do what ever they want.

Cheers
Jay

In California every kid gets a Chromebook that they give back after high school ends. There was a fiasco when a certain district announced iPads for every student at a cost of $1200? each. Turns out the administrator was benefiting from the deal. After that it was chrome books for everyone. Google to the rescue, eh em!

 

[pastrychef]

Nvidia is talking about 7nm multi chiplet design GPUs coming out next year. They say they are solving the multi core GPU/software issue.

I don't know how much of AMD's design is patented and I don't know if Nvidia's implementation will be a copy of AMD's.

On a different note, I think Nvidia's focus on ray tracing opened the door for AMD to catch up a bit in performance, if not quite on the high end, at least in the mid range. The 5700 (XT) is good enough that they were able to produce it without HBM. This makes the 5700 (XT) much more profitable than the Radeon VII.

I think the 5500 will also be extremely important. The 5500 and 5700 (XT), aka low and mid range cards, represents the bulk of sales. Then, the final piece to the puzzle will be a high end "halo" card. Hopefully, that appears sooner rather than later.

 

[pastrychef]

A little more than a year later and Intel has deteriorated further. Their stock price went from around $60/share a year ago to under $50/share today while AMD and Nvidia stock prices have more than doubled. They have also lost considerable market share in consumer and server CPUs.

This has triggered activist investors to attack:

Activist investor Dan Loeb urges Intel to explore deal options

Activist hedge fund Third Point is pushing Intel to explore strategic alternatives, including whether it should remain an integrated device manufacturer, according to a letter it sent to the chipma…

nypost.com

I don't see things getting any better for Intel any time soon.

 

[trs96]

If Third Point has that much invested in Intel stock, they lost money by the fistfuls this year. Ouch !

The New York-based fund has amassed a nearly $1 billion stake in Intel, according to people familiar with the matter.

Loeb said in the letter that Intel’s most urgent task was addressing its “human capital management issue”, as many of its talented chip designers have fled, “demoralized by the status quo.”

 

[pastrychef]

If Third Point has that much invested in Intel stock, they lost money by the fistfuls this year. Ouch !

I suspect that they bought in fairly recently. I think they saw a company in turmoil that they can take advantage of and moved.

Edit:
CNBC confirmed that Intel is a recent addition to Third Point's portfolio.

 

[Gigamaxx]

Intel needs to do something to get off the dinosaur 14nm+++++****+++. I fear they are going the way of Ford and Chevy during the seventies. MustangIIs and Camaro lights.

The M1 is also a hot slap in the face to both AMD and Intel. They need to work on ARM research ASAP. Intel has the framework to get on it but AMD is lacking. I don’t see why Apple would use Intel for chip manufacturing when they have all the 3nm tied up from TSMC. AMD has some 5nm but Apple locked down ALL the 3nm.

If this guy gets control of the company board it could get very interesting and scary all at once. Scary for employees and their pensions, and interesting for the marketplace. Intel needs to do something, their 10nm is ridiculously late and probably outdated they need to get into the 7nm crowd like yesterday.

 

[trs96]

I agree that in terms of desktop and laptop CPU sales and development Intel is lagging behind AMD. They have many other sources of revenue though. AMD is still not even close to the total revenue of Intel Corp. this year. Intel tops them by nearly 70 billion dollars. So it's not all doom and gloom, they can still right the ship and start competing if they get their act together soon. They need to change the corporate culture to do this.

Intel revenue for the twelve months ending September 30, 2020 was $78.098B, a 10.91% increase year-over-year.

 

[pastrychef]

I agree that in terms of desktop and laptop CPU sales and development Intel is lagging behind AMD. They have many other sources of revenue though. AMD is still not even close to the total revenue of Intel Corp. this year. Intel tops them by nearly 70 billion dollars. So it's not all doom and gloom, they can still right the ship and start competing if they get their act together soon. They need to change the corporate culture to do this.

Intel revenue for the twelve months ending September 30, 2020 was $78.098B, a 10.91% increase year-over-year.

View attachment 503053

Intel is losing market share on desktops and servers to AMD and it will only accelerate since they are falling further and further behind.

Source:https://www.techspot.com/news/87436-amd-chipping-away-intel-cpu-market-share.html


How long can revenues continue to grow if their products continue to fall further behind the competition's? 2020 saw huge increases in the sale of computers are people were forced to work from home and learn from home. In this best case scenario, Intel revenues only increased 10.91% year over year while AMD revenues increased 43.55%. Even more impressive was the 55.52% year over year increase by quarter from AMD.

Source:https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/INTC/intel/revenue

Source:https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMD/amd/revenue


With the increased competition, I expect Intel profit margins to drop significantly. Over the last few months, we saw i9-9900K CPUs on sale for approx $320-350. I can't remember any other time Intel discounted their CPUs so much from the MSRP, even EOL models. This means that although revenues may have been up, actual profits will probably be worse than before.

The outlook for Intel seems really bleak to me. They don't have an answer for 7nm and AMD is already starting to move to 5nm. If Third Point gains control of the board, I bet they would be more interested in squeezing whatever they can out of the company more than restructuring for a stronger future.

 

[trs96]

With the increased competition, I expect Intel profit margins to drop significantly. Over the last few months, we saw i9-9900K CPUs on sale for approx $320-350. I can't remember any other time Intel discounted their CPUs so much from the MSRP, even EOL models. This means that although revenues may have been up, actual profits will probably be worse than before.

I agree they're going in the wrong direction and they're going to need to do something right now. They've got the financial resources to survive until they can start moving in the right direction. They won't be going bankrupt anytime soon is the point I was making. It looks like they've been selling off the less profitable parts of their business. They do need to focus on new leadership as they no longer can charge the highest prices and get away with that. Their past 15 years of having a monopoly is over. I think this wakeup call is going to be a good thing for Intel.

Most everyone here is disappointed they couldn't innovate enough to keep Apple as a customer. Now macOS is getting more locked down and we'll be getting locked out too. That is the unfortunate reality we're facing the next 4-5 years or so.

 

[pastrychef]

I agree they're going in the wrong direction and they're going to need to do something right now. They've got the financial resources to survive until they can start moving in the right direction. They won't be going bankrupt anytime soon is the point I was making. Most everyone here is disappointed they couldn't innovate enough to keep Apple as a customer. Now macOS is getting more locked down and we'll be getting locked out too. That is the unfortunate reality we're facing the next 4-5 years or so.

There has been speculation that Bob Swan will be forced to tap TSMC to manufacture CPUs. This will undoubtedly erode profit margins.

Also, the article about Third Point mentioned talent leaving the company.

To me, all this indicates that, at best, it will take a long time before Intel regains the lead in the CPU arena and, at worse, they may never get back the crown again.

This will probably lead to a stock price that goes nowhere and leaves them vulnerable to guys like Dan Loeb and Carl Icahn and, to me, that's just bad news.