What's next for Apple post iPhone ?

[trs96]

Here's the Nokia 5110 from 1998 compared to the iPhone 3G in July 2008. The 3G had it's own App Store. You could buy apps, surf the internet, take pictures, play all your music. You could do a lot more than just make phone calls with a 3G iPhone. The newer iPhones have better cameras, bigger screens, more ram and longer battery life. They're still pretty much the same concept. It's been 12 years since that first iPhone 3G yet Apple hasn't done anything really innovative. No one else has come up with anything radically different from Apple's market dominating smartphone either. We've seen curved phones, foldable phones and even modular phones all fail to gain any market share and mass adoption by smart phone users. As long as no else challenges them with something really different that can do everything better, we'll continue to get mostly a slightly better version of the same thing.

What do you see the iPhone being 10 years from now in 2030 ? Will it even still exist ? Will it go the way of the iPod ? Replaced by a product that does a hundred more things than what the current iPhones do ?

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Now

Now have a look at the iPhone 11 from 2019. Not much change in the basic design. Main differences are the "notch" and lack of a chin and no home button on said chin.

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What is going to be the next really BIG thing that Apple focuses on to get that leadership in innovation back in the manner they had it thirteen years ago in 2007 ?

 

[UtterDisbelief]

Here's the Nokia 5110 from 1998 compared to the iPhone 3G in July 2008 which had it's own App Store. You could do a lot more than just make phone calls with a 3G iPhone. The newer iPhones have better cameras, bigger screens, more ram and longer battery life. They're still pretty much the same concept. It's been 12 years since that first iPhone 3G yet Apple hasn't done anything really innovative. No one else has come up with anything radically different from Apple's market dominating smart phone either. We've seen curved phones, foldable phones and even modular phones all fail to gain any market share and mass adoption by smart phone users. As long as no else challenges them with something really different that can do everything better, we'll continue to get mostly a slightly better version of the same thing.

What do you see the iPhone being 10 years from now in 2030 ? Will it even still exist ? Will it go the way of the iPod ? Replaced by a product that does a hundred more things than what the current iPhones do ?

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Wh

I think Apple really innovated with both the iPhone an iPad. I don't have the data to prove it but I suspect Android was a rushed copy. Maybe someone will correct me there. I had a Nokia with icons but nothing like what was to come. Whatever, with iPhone, the world then had proper portable computers in a phone-sized box.

People often go off on zany design tangents thinking-up new concepts but there are a couple of things which remain constant and cannot be changed:

1) The average size of the human hand.

2) The distance between a human's ear and mouth.

These two dimensions dictate how big or small a phone can get. The idea of a watch-phone is actually with us now, so I agree that's different, but it's worn all the time and not easy to put down when you want to. And the screen is paltry.

I think what may change more - and the evidence is that this has already happened - is that separate cameras will disappear, except for pro-grade stuff. My last camera-only purchase was a Canon Ixus ("Elph" is the US version) with 12MP. It's a lovely little cast-metal camera but it's 9-years old now. My iPhone easily out-performs it these days.

I do still have a couple of iPod Shuffle 1st Generation models. I really liked those and think they have great utility, but no-one at Apple agreed with me it seems.

So I guess I'm thinking phones will stay the same format for 10-years, but get better and better cameras. As for foldable? Madness. Long and thin (Sony) Nah. Modular? People will lose bits.

 

[trs96]

So I guess I'm thinking phones will stay the same format for 10-years, but get better and better cameras.

That's what has happened the last twelve years. I hope we get something different. I'm thinking along the lines of a device that doesn't need any lcd touchscreen to operate. We went from cell phones with physical buttons to the current touchscreen smartphones in just 10 years. There's going to be something completely different from that eventually. We just don't know when that tech will be here. Someone else can come along and make Apple irrelevant by making something even more useful than an iPhone. Once you're on top, no where to go but down as they say.

 

[trs96]

How about the much rumored Apple Car ? That would be a huge transformation of transportation.

I predict that this is where Apple is headed after we've reached peak iPhone. Some say that is right now.​

If Apple does get the opportunity to buy Tesla at some point, they've already offered to, think how they could use that 200 billion dollar plus pile of cash to create the future automobiles. Really big "Smart Devices" on wheels. Say goodbye to pumping gas and to oil changes. Never have to look at a map again, or even drive for yourself. Seemed like science fiction a few short years ago but it's clearly going to be possible.

This excerpt is from an article by Mike Elgan of Insider Pro

Apple knows where cars are going.

A huge trove of patents, executive statements, leaks, sightings and informed predictions all point to a breathtaking future for the Apple automobile.

The problem is that large organizations aren't thinking in the same way.

Tomorrow’s cars are not just about transportation. They're about terabytes of data generated daily that will have to be managed, provisioned, processed and secured.

The Apple Car is not a car

We live our lives in four spaces:

1. Home
2. Work
3. While in transit
4. None of the above

Apple dominates spaces 1, 2 and 4 (the last one with its iPhone and Apple Watch)

Future cars will be self-driving, and therefore will exist for work, communication and content consumption. Apple intends to dominate that space as well. And that's why Apple is aggressively working on Project Titan, it's incredible car project.

Apple is the most valuable company in the world because it re-invented the music experience with the iPod, the phone with the iPhone, the tablet with the iPad.

These products -- and certainly not laptops and desktops -- won't allow Apple to continue growing. Nor will "services" (although financial services will help in the next five years).

No, in order to sustain growth, Apple needs to re-invent something that most people use daily. Something expensive. A car. And that's what they're working on.

Our instincts about cars are stuck in the past. We think about gasoline and pistons and steering wheels and trunk space -- a business completely unrelated to Apple's business.

The car of the future is totally within Apple's wheelhouse. End of excerpt.

I don't think that Apple will be manufacturing the cars themselves. If they do buy Tesla they could. I don't think Elon Musk will ever sell though. If they were to buy Ford or GM or even form a partnership with them, they could put their tech into new Smart Cars. I think they will continue to be the most valuable company in the world for a long time to come if they can pull this off. Here's the current stock price of Ford Motor Co. Apple could buy them out with pocket change.

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Q: I can see that happening in the next 8-12 years. How about the cost. Apple's products always sell for premium prices to their competitors. If these cars cost $50,000 or more I'll never be able to buy one.

A: Apple will not even be selling these cars nor will any other company. All you'll be doing in summoning one of these (with your iPhone) to pick you up at home or wherever you are. It will already know where your destination is before it gets to you. You'll pay for the ride with Apple pay, no cash, checks or tips required.

It doesn't matter if you are 15 years old or even 105. You don't need to even be able to see. The autonomous car takes care of all the details for you. This will make what you pay for transportation a lot cheaper when you don't own the car and all the additional expenses that come with it.

Here's a video that demonstrates what the autonomous driving future will look like.

 

[trs96]

Here's something to think about. Once we get to full autonomy and all electric vehicles who will that put out of business ?

1. Any car makers still making Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) cars.
2. Taxi/Cab drivers.
3. Auto mechanics that only know how to work on ICE cars.
4. Car dealerships.
5. Gas and oil companies.
6. Gasoline filling stations.
7. Auto parts stores.
8. Quick oil change shops.
9. Paid parking lots, parking ramps.
10. Parking meters for city revenue. (your Apple car drops you off, keep the change in your pocket)

That's my top ten. Can you think of any others ? Do you see how big a disruption these will be.

Remember when everyone had a land line telephone in the 1970s and up through the mid 1990s ? Today the land line phone business is completely dead. We've got cell phones and VOIP calling. The same thing is going to happen to our current reliance on gas and oil powered cars and trucks. They'll completely disappear.

 

[craighazan]

Flying cars?, is that so absurd?. I think the last piece of news I heard about Apple car, was that it was done. Did they find an alternative, a better Apple car?. There is so much infrastructure involved with cars, disrupting it would need something else, not land based.

 

[trs96]

There is so much infrastructure involved with cars, disrupting it would need something else, not land based.

You're missing the point. We need fewer cars, less traffic, less pollution, less expenses involved with owning a car. This is why autonomous electric cars fit those needs. That is what is bringing about change in a stagnant industry such as we have now in the auto industry. The new autonomous electric cars can keep all four wheels on the ground and accomplish this.

In big cities in China the toxic air pollution has cleared up once everyone stopped driving their cars and all the factories shut down for two months. People still wear masks on the street but that is mainly due to viral fears, not pollution. Look at the following recent picture of LA. All the smog is gone. I've never seen that.

In the city where I live all the cab companies are switching to hybrid Toyotas and Teslas. Why ? Because they're so much cheaper to operate and repair than ICE cars. It's the bottom line that gets them to make changes.