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Apple Previews macOS 12 Monterey - Available Fall 2021

trs96

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My guess has always been macOS support for approx 3-5 years after the last Intel Mac has been officially discontinued.
Possibly, but I think the difference now is that Apple is a 2 trillion dollar plus company that can afford to extend Intel support longer. That's why 4-6 years is more likely for this transition.

Back in 2006 the iPod was their biggest selling device and they were not as flush with cash. They didn't yet have the iPhone cash cow, iPads and the Apple watch, all which have very large profit margins. They dropped PPC support rather quickly in the mid 2000s and moved on to Intel as fast as they could. Back then Macs were their main source of revenue. No app stores or other sources of revenue to fall back on. When you look at iOS 15, it still supports the iPhone 6S which is a crazy long time to support any smart phone. The 6S with 6+ years of support.

SAN FRANCISCO — September 9, 2015 — Apple® today announced iPhone® 6s and iPhone 6s Plus, the most advanced iPhones ever, adding a powerful new dimension to iPhone’s revolutionary Multi-Touch™ interface.
 
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trs96

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I’m guessing Universal Control will require the T2 chip so that’s a bummer… (for SMBIOS that have it)
It may also work using the same methods of transfer as Continuity and Handoff on Macs. That's probably why some of the newer Intel Macs will work with this feature.
 
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pastrychef

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Possibly, but I think the difference now is that Apple is a 2 trillion dollar plus company that can afford to extend Intel support longer. That's why 4-6 years is more likely for this transition.

Back in 2006 the iPod was their biggest selling device and they were not as flush with cash. They didn't yet have the iPhone cash cow, iPads and the Apple watch, all which have very large profit margins. They dropped PPC support rather quickly in the mid 2000s and moved on to Intel as fast as they could. Back then Macs were their main source of revenue. No app stores or other sources of revenue to fall back on. When you look at iOS 15, it still supports the iPhone 6S which is a crazy long time to support any smart phone. The 6S with 6+ years of support.

SAN FRANCISCO — September 9, 2015 — Apple® today announced iPhone® 6s and iPhone 6s Plus, the most advanced iPhones ever, adding a powerful new dimension to iPhone’s revolutionary Multi-Touch™ interface.

  • Apple has already transitioned iMacs, MacBook Airs, and MacBook Pros to Apple Silicon.
  • Only the Mac Pro hasn't moved to Apple Silicon yet. (Also, 16" MacBook Pro from 2019 and 27"+ iMac from 2020, if you count those separately.)
  • Assuming that Apple will no longer introduce any new Intel Macs anymore, the last new models that were released will be the MacBookPro16,x and iMac20,x, both from 2020.
  • I think it's a pretty safe assumption that some time between now and the end of the year, Apple will replace the 16" MacBook Pros and 27" iMacs with Apple Silicon models.
  • My guess is that the MacPro7,1 from 2019 will be replaced early 2022 and that will be the last Intel Mac to be discontinued.
  • If the above guesstimations are correct, 3-5 years of additional support will mean that all the 2020 models and 2019 Mac Pro will gets support up to 2025-2027. That means 2019 Mac Pro and 2020 models will have received official support 6-8 years after their introduction. I think that's fair and in line with how long they've historically supported most models.
Supporting them any further than that will not make sense regardless of how much money the company makes. It would be fiduciarily irresponsible of management towards shareholders.

Edit:
When I say 3-5 years of support, I mean 3 years of new macOS releases + 2 years of security updates.
 
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  • Apple has already transitioned iMacs, MacBook Airs, and MacBook Pros to Apple Silicon.
  • Only the Mac Pro hasn't moved to Apple Silicon yet. (Also, 16" MacBook Pro from 2019 and 27"+ iMac from 2020, if you count those separately.)
  • Assuming that Apple will no longer introduce any new Intel Macs anymore, the last new models that were released will be the MacBookPro16,x and iMac20,x, both from 2020.
  • I think it's a pretty safe assumption that some time between now and the end of the year, Apple will replace the 16" MacBook Pros and 27" iMacs with Apple Silicon models.
  • My guess is that the MacPro7,1 from 2019 will be replaced early 2022 and that will be the last Intel Mac to be discontinued.
  • If the above guesstimations are correct, 3-5 years of additional support will mean that all the 2020 models and 2019 Mac Pro will gets support up to 2025-2027. That means 2019 Mac Pro and 2020 models will have received official support 6-8 years after their introduction. I think that's fair and in line with how long they've historically supported most models.
Supporting them any further than that will not make sense regardless of how much money the company makes. It would be fiduciarily irresponsible of management towards shareholders.

Edit:
When I say 3-5 years of support, I mean 3 years of new macOS releases + 2 years of security updates.
There seem to be reference in xCode to a new Intel Mac Pro using the latest Intel Xeon Ice Lake CPUs.
 

pastrychef

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There seem to be reference in xCode to a new Intel Mac Pro using the latest Intel Xeon Ice Lake CPUs.

I know. My best guess is that separate teams are working on different things and them not knowing what the other teams are doing.

In 2020, Apple announced their transition would take about two years. That means the entire Mac line will be on Apple Silicon by 2022. Personally, it wouldn't make much sense to release new Intel based iMac Pros or Mac Pros between now and end of 2022. I mean, what knucklehead would waste thousands on a system they will be discontinued within months? I just doesn't make any sense.
 
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I mean, what knucklehead would waste thousands on a system they will be discontinued within months? I just doesn't make any sense
Well in that professional sphere those kind of investments are either a tax write off or you are doing some big project that in the end pays for the investment in the machine. People who need x86 compatibility / expandability and that much power in a machine will definitely consider buying one. Especially since a lot of pro apps and plugins are not native on M1 and who knows when or if they will be. I don't expect apple to sell them in the same number as M1 mac mini but there certainly is a market for them.
 
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trs96

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Whether or not Intel support gets dropped in macOS 14,15 or 16 etc. it will be close to 20 years of Intel support in OS X and macOS so we've got nothing to complain about. Apple let the hackintosh movement thrive and flourish over all those years. They didn't try to go the legal route to stop it or lock hackintoshers out of their ecosystem when they easily could have. So I can applaud Apple for doing the right thing. It was obvious that they had to ditch Intel due to the Intel roadmap going way off course.

The MBP is the the biggest selling Mac. How can you keep using Intel CPUs delivered too late that run too hot ? That would make many customers look elsewhere and leave Apple. Mac sales will keep improving and gain a lot more market share if the M series keeps leading in performance per watt over the long term. Prices have stayed about the same for new Apple Silicon Macs and if they prove to be long lasting and perform as well as the first M1s the future looks good.
 

trs96

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In one MacRumors thread they discussed the topic of "What if Apple had stayed with PPC?"

1623323072078.png
 

pastrychef

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Well in that professional sphere those kind of investments are either a tax write off or you are doing some big project that in the end pays for the investment in the machine. People who need x86 compatibility / expandability and that much power in a machine will definitely consider buying one. Especially since a lot of pro apps and plugins are not native on M1 and who knows when or if they will be. I don't expect apple to sell them in the same number as M1 mac mini but there certainly is a market for them.

They can just pick up the current Mac Pro and Apple won't have to extend support for Intel Macs for another year...
 
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